Betting and agriculture should be spared in the provisional measure that provides fiscal breathing room to the government.

In an all-or-nothing situation and under intense pressure, the government had to concede and accept a smaller share of the proposal that taxes financial investments and virtual assets, Provisional Measure 1.303/25. The behind-the-scenes agreement is that the rapporteur, Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), will spare agribusiness and betting companies by reinstating the exemption on real estate and agribusiness credit notes (LCI and LCA). Furthermore, betting companies should also be preserved. The government's initial suggestion was to increase the tax rate on virtual betting sites, but the trend is to maintain the current rate of 12% on net revenue. On the other hand, there may be an agreement for betting companies to pay a kind of retroactive payment or repatriation of amounts relating to the years in which they were not regulated. The changes should reduce the government's projected revenue by about 20%, dropping from R$20 billion to R$16 billion. Even so, there is still no agreement to approve the measure. This needs to be discussed in a meeting with party leaders later today.

Provisional Measure 1.303/25 is on the agenda of the Joint Committee this Tuesday and needs to be approved by midnight on Wednesday in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. If it expires or is rejected, the government is likely to enter 2026 in the red.