How far will the militarization of Europe go?

By Eduardo Vasco - The frequent and increasing public humiliations imposed by Trump on Zelensky demonstrate that the United States' role in the proxy war against Russia is likely to be secondary. The Europeans are already planning to take the lead in the impending tragedy.

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, declared to the world that "Europe urgently needs to be rearmed." The European Union is holding a special defense summit this Thursday precisely to discuss military expansion plans, at a turning point in post-World War II European politics.

“We all understand that, after a long period of underinvestment, it is now extremely important to increase investment in defense for an extended period. It is for the security of the European Union,” she stated at an event hosted by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss the situation in Ukraine, shortly after Zelensky was assaulted at the White House. “We have to put Ukraine in a position of strength, so that it has the means to strengthen and protect itself,” von der Leyen added.

But this trend is not new. It has only intensified with Trump's arrival at the White House. In January 2024, the newspaper Bild revealed a secret document from the German armed forces that predicted a direct war between NATO and Russia in the European summer of 2025. A few days later, Robert Bauer, head of NATO's military committee, declared at a meeting with the military chiefs of the member countries: "we need a transformation of NATO for war."

Since Russia reacted to NATO provocations and fully entered the war in Ukraine, Macron has frequently advocated for an end to European dependence on the United States, both economically and militarily. He even went so far as to suggest a strictly continental military alliance, not an Atlantic one. Now, the likely new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz (a BlackRock executive), seems to be following the same line, stating in a pre-election debate that his priority will be to make Europe independent of the US.

Last September, von der Leyen appointed the first European Commissioner for Defence, a clear sign of the new Castroist era. The European Commission, the European Union, and NATO are centralizing control over the budgets of European countries to force increased military spending in each of them.

It's curious that Europeans are indicating they will do exactly what Trump has been demanding of them for a long time. Defense budgets are about to increase in NATO, something that has already happened in Spain and has been announced by France, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. In 2014, only 8 of the then 28 members spent 20% of their defense budget on equipment and programs, which is considered ideal by NATO. By 2024, 29 of the current 32 members were following this guideline – with the Poles already spending more than 50%, even ahead of the US's 30%. In turn, in 2014 only three countries spent 2% of their GDP on defense (NATO's target since 2006), and today that number has reached 23.

As always, the arms industry is the one that most wants war. It's no coincidence that the US military-industrial complex has always been opposed to Donald Trump – not because they see him as sexist, racist, and homophobic, but because of his indications of reducing the US military role around the world, which includes withdrawing troops from Europe and reducing spending on NATO.

Despite being a sign of a possible retreat from dependence on the US, von der Leyen herself said in February that Europeans should increase their gas imports from the Americans to compensate for the dependence that still exists on Russia. Most importantly, however, the militarization of Europe would stem precisely from the US military-industrial complex, since Europeans are unable to produce the materials they need, precisely because of their subservience to Washington since the Marshall Plan.

Trump's election was a blow to the American military-industrial complex – also known as the Deep State (along with the intelligence agencies). Since it has long been controlled by finance capital, it can be said to be the pillar of the post-World War II imperialist system. This fundamental sector of imperialist power even attempts to influence the decisions of the new American government, but other layers of big capital oppose it, at least in part. It remains to utilize its players on the other side of the Atlantic, while it still controls them without much difficulty.

A shrewd intellectual from the American establishment suggested in a prestigious magazine that European countries should buy more gas from the US and reduce import tariffs on chemicals and pharmaceuticals from America to secure investments in European defense, as well as tighten restrictions on freedom of expression on social media. After all, he already knows that with increased military spending, banks will demand cuts in social spending, and therefore there will be a wave of discontent. It will be necessary to suppress the opposition.

Europe is facing a historic deindustrialization (accelerated by sanctions against Russia and Moscow's retaliation). Furthermore, inflation has been high since the Russian intervention in Ukraine – further fueled by the Houthis' blockade of the Red Sea – as have business bankruptcies, unemployment, poverty rates, and protests, especially those by farmers.

The reindustrialization that German industrialists, in particular, demand will come precisely through military production, as it did in World War II. This is what saved global capitalism and secured the US's role as the reigning world power to this day. The scenario may please both sides: large American capitalists profit from the sale of weapons and equipment to Europe, and large European capitalists profit from the reindustrialization and social austerity that this brings about.

This policy is a perfect fit for the European far-right. It has long been riding the wave of intense popular dissatisfaction with neoliberal doctrine. It reached government or important bargaining positions in the European Parliament and the main countries of the continent by deceiving middle-class and working-class voters with its demagoguery, but mainly by receiving growing support from the national business community.

Although in France and Germany she is officially against war with Russia, she supports the resurgence of great powers and is backed by industrialists. Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel do not hide their willingness to form a coalition with traditional right-wing parties, such as Macron's base or the CDU. The cordon sanitaire has already begun to break down in Germany. The very policies of the current governments—militarization and hardening of laws (whether against immigration or against freedom of expression)—lay the ground for the far-right to come to power.

Many compare the current situation to the period immediately preceding World Wars I and II. This period was one of industrialization, militarization, and increased competition among the powers for world markets. Europe played a leading role in both wars, especially Germany. The Germans arrived late to the pre-World War I competition, were humiliated by Versailles before World War II, and were essentially colonized by the US after 1945. They are the weakest link in the imperialist axis and the most prone to fascism. A resumption of independent economic growth, accompanied by massive rearmament, would necessarily lead to German expansion. This need, as we have seen, could only be met last time by a fascist regime. This time should be no different.