Argentina: Macri in freefall and Cristina widening her stride.

The main topic of the last few days has been the failure and rampant decline in approval ratings for the Macri government. Polls showing Cristina Kirchner with a 9-point lead (45%) in a second round against Macri (36%) are based not only on opinion, but on a real situation of bankruptcy in all its variables: economic, social, and political.

Economic crisis. The economic policy of this "Let's Change" government, essentially monetary, has caused an unpayable external debt contracted in the last 3 years – 320 billion dollars at the end of 2018 (86% of GDP, while at the end of 2015 the Kirchner governments had paid 93% of the debt); suicidal dependency agreements with the IMF, the unstoppable flight of capital (in the snowball of country risk that is nearing 963), interest rates at 70%, the uncontrollable rise of the dollar (it has risen more than 300% since 2015); all this, in a dollarized economy, has immediate catastrophic effects on basic services and products for survival, energy, fuel, transport and food for the population.

It becomes exhausting to reiterate and observe the evolution of these figures that portray Argentina's collapse each month. Perhaps it would be unnecessary for all those who already know where neoliberalism is leading us, but given that those abroad cannot witness this reality firsthand, which speaks volumes, it is worthwhile to show, with numbers, the tip of this grim iceberg. The stark reality, walking the streets of this country, is that every day one encounters a taciturn being, known or unknown, a relative, an unemployed neighbor, adding to the 200 who have emerged in the last 3 years; beggars abound, scavengers rummaging through garbage cans (who, soon, may be prevented from accessing their survival waste because the government claims to be creating a smart electronic garbage-opening card), and soup kitchens for children overflowing with hungry parents. In other words, Macri is chaos, as former president Cristina Kirchner characterized him when announcing her new book “Honestly"None of that existed during his administration, which was interrupted by the neoliberalism of the 'Cambiemos' government."

It is in the face of this economic disaster and the political and judicial crisis of Macri's administration that popular discontent is increasing, along with statistics favoring Cristina's candidacy.

Crisis in the Judiciary. The scandal of the discovery of this government's mafia-like scheme of legal-media-political espionage surrounding D'Allessiogate (involving prosecutors from the Public Ministry, such as Carlos Stornelli, judges, US secret services, the AFI – Federal Intelligence Agency –, journalists from the mainstream media and politicians from the Macri government), is taking on undeniable proportions, despite the power and counter-information of Clarin and La Nación and similar TV channels. Thanks to the progressive media of TV channels like C5N, which resists threats of closure, and online TV and radio stations such as The uncoveringWith radio stations like AM750, Rádio10, community radio stations, newspapers such as Página12, Tempo Argentino, and others that survived the media onslaught, popular consciousness is being raised and the mechanisms of lawfare against Cristina and the previous progressive government are being dismantled.

Thanks fundamentally to the courage of a young judge, Ramos Padilla, who broke through the Macri administration's political-judicial barrier to remain at the forefront of the D'Alessiogate case. The process triggered a series of witnesses from the legal field, lawyers, former judges, and industrialists determined to testify for the truth and against this scheme of corruption, money laundering, extortion, and threats to human rights. Thanks also to the political action of deputies and senators from the progressive area who created a Bicameral Commission (Front for Victory and Justicialist Party) for the investigation and control of intelligence services; and who opened inquiries into parliamentarians and members of the "Cambiemos" executive branch compromised by D'Alessiogate. Thanks also to the significant social and street mobilizations in support of Judge Ramos Padilla's actions. The fact is that all this weakens the armed lawfare of the famous "Notebooks" case, the Argentine "Lava Jato," and puts a brake on its offensive against Cristina Kirchner's candidacy.

Political crisis. The internal disarray within the "Cambiemos" political forces is also great in the face of the political defeats that have occurred in the primary elections in several provinces (states) of the country. In the PASO (Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries) elections, the candidate for governor of the unified opposition won in the provinces of: Entre Ríos, Patagonia, Río Negro, Neuquén, San Juan and La Pampa.

National and international media are reporting on the massive capital flight from Argentina yesterday, and the rise of the dollar to almost 45 Argentine pesos, pushing the country risk to 963, as fears of a return to the Kirchnerist government, following the release of statistics favoring Cristina Kirchner. In reality, the interpretation given by progressive forces is that the distrust or pressure from the markets erupts with Macri's recent declaration of presidential re-election. Within Cambiemos there is insecurity; there are rumors that another candidacy, such as that of other governors or the current one, from the Province of Buenos Aires, Eugenia Vidal, might be more convenient to prevent electoral defeat and save the neoliberal project.

The Essential Products Program scam. Cornered by all these factors of failure, and just months before the presidential elections in October, Macri launches the Essential Products Program. A complete sham, to mask his crisis, after having gutted the "Careful Prices" project of the previous government. Claiming to "alleviate" the rampant inflation predicted at 54,7% this year, he created a list of prices to be frozen for 6 months (until the October elections) for 64 supermarket items (in reality, only 16 products of various brands); these products are not even basic nutritional products, and their prices have already been increased by more than 30%, two days before the announcement of the price freeze program; they include only meat and do not include vegetables and fruits; the products have not yet reached the shelves and the prices are at the mercy of the rising dollar and transportation fares, which have already increased 15 times in the last 14 months. The option for the poor becomes: go to work without eating? Or, eat and go to work on foot. Meanwhile, people think: with Cristina Kirchner, Argentina was better off; according to the FAO, it was one of the 5 countries that had achieved Zero Hunger, and today, even being a livestock-producing country, it has the most expensive liter of milk in the world in relation to the monthly minimum wage; and this was above 500 dollars, the highest in Latin America; today it is close to 300 dollars and tends to decrease with the devaluation of the peso.

This ridiculous price freeze in the name of fighting inflation is a complete electoral sham. Inflation existed under the Kirchner governments, but it was much lower; it was manageable in the long run, given that it was a product of insufficient production in the face of demand from a population with greater purchasing power. Under Macri's neoliberal monetarist government, inflation is imposed by the dollar's price, which affects prices, and by the exorbitant energy and transportation tariffs decided by the government. And here's the kicker: this ridiculous freeze will only last until October, the election month. After that, if the "Cambiemos" government continues, the house of cards will collapse; for those who survive until then.

And just to conclude with some final figures and highlight the Argentine drama that few report on. According to the CEPA research firm, tariffs rose from 2015-2018: Gas (3008%); Electricity (2136%); Water (515%). GDP fell -10%. Average purchasing power decreased by -22%. The minimum wage lost ¼ of its real value. The loss of real value of pensions was -18,5%. There are three million newly impoverished people and one million newly destitute people.

Cristina widening her stride. But there is hope: the unity of the progressive forces of Peronism and Kirchnerism, of the Alfonsín radicalism (allied with Citizen Unity) and of the popular movements for a project of national recovery and sovereignty where the social authority of Cristina Kirchner could be decisive. The launch of her book "Sinceramente" on May 9th at the Buenos Aires International Book Fair could be a landmark for debate and articulation of political forces for this decisive electoral contest that will reverse lawfare and fascist neoliberalism in the South American region.

The traditional mobilization capacity of the Argentine labor and trade union movement is an essential driving force that Cristina's re-election will rely on. This May 1st will be preceded on April 30th by a massive unified general strike of all the trade union federations and social movements, small and medium-sized businesses, against the Macri government, with a new characteristic: it will be a day of strike with mobilizations.