Exclusive support for Freixo could isolate the PT (Workers' Party) in the ghetto of identity politics and pave the way for Ciro to establish himself as a third option.

More than just delimiting alliances in Rio, the Workers' Party's decision to support Marcelo Freixo's (PSB) candidacy could represent a strategic error, with worrying consequences for the presidential elections. The immediate result of the Workers' Party's decision was Eduardo Paes's move toward Ciro Gomes, who, with confirmed support, would become competitive in Rio, finally establishing himself as a third way.

Boosted by Paes, Ciro could break the limits of his limited political power, establishing himself in Brazil as the third in the fray, building on the electoral muscle he acquired in Rio de Janeiro. The Ipespe poll shows Ciro still in the game, rigorously tied with Moro, with 8% of the vote. Paes's support could be enough to guarantee him the two or three percentage points needed to establish himself as a competitive candidate. With no prospect of growth thus far, squeezed on the left by Lula and on the right by Bolsonaro, Ciro could finally gain a robust platform, from which he will certainly gain national prominence.

Speculation that Eduardo Paes is moving toward an alliance with the PDT has caused concern among the PT's national leadership, which hadn't counted on the move. Given past ties (Paes was mayor during Lula's presidency) and the current harmonious relationship with the PT leader, Paes was always in the party's plans and projections as a potential ally in Rio.

There are, indeed, many similarities between him and Lula. The exchange of affection and mutual compliments in recent months has created an almost courting atmosphere, a romance with inevitable electoral consequences. However, upon witnessing Gleisi Hoffmann unilaterally declare support for Freixo, the mayor felt empowered to pursue his own path, distancing himself from the Workers' Party (PT) project. On a clearly local issue, Paes would never be drawn into a national PT decision. If the objective was to truly have him close to Lula, decisions about alliances in the state should have been made through dialogue and an exchange of positions. And that's not how the support for Marcelo Freixo came about. Paes learned about it through the newspapers, and the newspapers responded by announcing a meeting with Ciro Gomes.

Approved by Lula, the alliance with the PSB candidate is based on the PT president's thesis that this would be a non-negotiable requirement of the socialists for the construction of the federation. Rio de Janeiro could not be another obstacle in the negotiations, already hampered by electoral issues in São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Rio Grande do Sul. In the name of conciliation, the PT members in Rio de Janeiro acquiesced to Gleisi's arguments.

This Wednesday, however, during a virtual meeting to discuss the federation, PSB president Carlos Siqueira let slip a phrase that surprised and disturbed the negotiators. Exhausted by the difficulties of reaching a consensus with the PT, he stated verbatim: "You only accept supporting us in Rio, where the candidate has no history with us; he joined yesterday."

Those who attended the meeting understood that Rio was not exactly a requirement of the PSB. The evasive tone of the references to the PSB congressman's candidacy was interpreted as a clear sign that this support would be a secondary issue in the negotiations. In this case, Gleisi's version that the alliance with Freixo would be a precondition for progress in the negotiations would be unfounded.

The Rio de Janeiro Workers' Party (PT) has other concerns about the prospect of supporting Freixo exclusively. The party fears being trapped in the ghetto of identity-based issues, traditionally firmly defended by the candidate. This association with secondary campaign themes, which should be focused on the country's political pacification and economic recovery, could create unnecessary disruption during the debates.

For the most part, the Workers' Party in Rio wanted to define its alliances in sync with Eduardo Paes, given the mayor's recognized electoral clout in the state. The prevailing idea, which was ultimately influenced by Gleisi Hoffmann, was to build multiple platforms for Lula in Rio—with Freixo, Felipe Santa Cruz, and Rodrigo Neves.

Eduardo Paes's unexpected moves could yet produce twists in the party's electoral strategy in Rio. The game is still being played.