Aécio and FHC's bad advice.

Two weeks before the presidential elections, there is only one certainty: Dilma Rousseff will be in the second round. For several months, she has remained stable between 35% and 38% of voting intentions, and nothing indicates that she will be left out of the decisive round. Where there is doubt, however, is about who will face her: Marina Silva or Aécio Neves. Today, the PSB candidate is the favorite, but the PSDB candidate has regained momentum after both Ibope and Datafolha pointed to the first signs of recovery in his candidacy.

The Datafolha numbers, released on Friday, are even more representative because they indicate a trend. Marina lost votes among the most educated, among the poorest, and in practically all regions of the country. Therefore, her bias is downward, and according to the institute's director, Mauro Paulino, Aécio benefited the most from the confrontation between Dilma and Marina. He also states that, in one week, Aécio has the potential to rise from 17% to 21%, while Marina could fall from 30% to 26%. With the margin of error of two points, this is almost a technical tie, which would make the last week electrifying.

This means that, from today until October 5th, Aécio has only one opponent: Marina Silva. Dilma will only be his opponent if he manages to advance to the second round. Therefore, the advice from former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso for the PSDB candidate to concentrate his attacks on Dilma – and not on the PSB candidate – is incomprehensible. It was Marina who took away Aécio's second place, which he held throughout the presidential race. And it is Marina who is trying to maintain this position by selling the theory of the "strategic vote," which claims that only she would be capable of defeating the PT.

This is precisely the poison injected into the segment of the electorate that rejects the current government. Many prefer Aécio, but they have been convinced that only Marina can defeat Dilma. And when the PSDB candidate attempts a criticism of the socialist candidate during the election campaign, he does so by recalling Marina's past ties to the PT – that is, reinforcing the argument that removing the PT from power is what really matters. However, since Marina is a former PT member and today lives surrounded by current or former PSDB members, already willing to participate in her eventual government, the argument is weak to defeat her.

If Aécio truly wants a comeback in these remaining 15 days, it's not enough to wait for the "wave of reason." He will need to clearly explain why voting for Marina would be irrational, demonstrating his lack of administrative experience, party structure, team, and firm convictions on various issues, given that the candidate's constant backtracking is already a hallmark of the current race. Either Aécio is convinced of this, or he says goodbye to the contest.