Life after the World Cup

The 2014 World Cup brought surprises of all kinds. On the field, there is a relative balance in the competitions, certainly a result of the globalization of sports and the intense transnational migratory flows, which result in national teams made up of a significant number of athletes who play abroad and a large participation of migrants in European national teams.

Off the field, barring isolated incidents, there is a tranquility that reverses expectations of unrest, which occurred during the Confederations Cup. This is evidence of the effectiveness of coordinated actions by the forces responsible for public security. Furthermore, the civilized act of Japanese fans, who collect the trash after the matches, is impressive, contrasting sharply with the barbaric and extreme mercenary behavior of African athletes who condition their participation in the competitions on the prior payment of prize money, and the cannibalistic behavior of athlete Luis Suárez, regrettably justified by Uruguayan authorities and the press.

We still need to know the true extent of public spending on the World Cup and the corruption involved in the construction of stadiums and surrounding infrastructure. I'm not very optimistic about pleasant surprises.

With the World Cup over, the election season begins, highlighted by political broadcasts with purely advertising appeal. The competition between candidates for airtime makes it clear that the formation of parties and their adherence to candidacies have become veritable businesses, at the expense of taxpayers, who finance the "free" airtime and party funds. Whoever wins this year's elections, our real World Cup begins in 2015. This year only served to aggravate the economic and political problems.

Inflation is high, with prospects for further increases due to the artificial containment of administered prices for fuel, electricity, and public transportation. If Petrobras and the electricity system are already at risk today, due to enormous asset losses, in the near future the inevitable increase in public transportation fares will bring more inflation and unrest instigated by radical groups.

The policy of stimulating consumption has already shown signs of exhaustion, due to the loss of purchasing power and the high indebtedness of the population. We are heading towards a tragic combination of low growth and high inflation, which has so often brought us misfortune.

The dilapidated infrastructure continually conspires against productivity. A clear conviction has not yet formed that solving the problem requires privatization programs capable of attracting investment.

Fiscal policy is a disaster that "creative accounting" maneuvers have failed to hide. Public spending is one step ahead of revenue.

Tax exemptions are not based on technical criteria. They only respond to lobbying efforts. What is the logic behind tax breaks for automobiles and fuel at a time when Brazilian cities are paralyzed by traffic jams?

The PIS and Cofins taxes have reached a level of complexity and inconsistency never before seen in the country's tax history. No solution is in sight for the ICMS tax war. Income tax legislation, which had gained international respectability, is being distorted by the proliferation of regressive tax rates on financial investments and by the disastrous adoption of so-called International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in unresolved conflict with tax policy.

In the political arena, the National Congress, weakened by the supremacy of provisional measures, by apathy in the consideration of presidential vetoes, and by the dirty war of budgetary amendments, is now confronted by a decree that institutionalizes the participation of "popular councils" in the formulation of public policies.

Winning the 2015 World Cup in Brazil requires something more elaborate than blood, heart, and grit, as Obdulio Varela, captain of the Uruguayan national team in 1950, used to say.