Triple polarization

Everyone recognizes that this year's elections are already the most polarized since 1989.

But not everyone realizes that there are three polarizations: one around the coup, another around the program, and another about the political system.

On one side, the coup plotters; on the other, those fighting against the coup.

On one side are the neoliberals, on the other those who defend the interests of the people.

On one side are the candidates of the "system," on the other are those who are, or appear to be, anti-systemic.

Lula leads in the polls, among other reasons, because he polarizes very well, in the eyes of the masses, across all three vectors.

Lula is a double victim — of the coup and of the “system” — and, at the same time, his name is interpreted by some of the people as a program!

In all three areas, Lula performs better than Ciro and Boulos, who imagined they could grow in a vacuum that, so far, has not existed.

Bolsonaro is in second place in the polls because, while he strongly polarizes (and loses more than he gains electorally because of this) on the issues of being a coup plotter and neoliberal, on the other hand he benefits (gains much more than he loses) from being seen by part of the population as someone anti-establishment.

Considering these three factors, Bolsonaro performs better than Alckmin, Meirelles, Álvaro, Marina, and other center-right candidates, who lose a great deal because they are coup plotters and neoliberals, but also lose too much because they reek of traditional politics.

This situation is causing despair among center-right candidates, as the combination of factors makes it much more difficult to unseat Lula and Bolsonaro from the lead in the polls.

The actions of the coup-supporting government and parliament spontaneously highlight the programmatic nature of Lula's candidacy. And each step they take to disqualify Lula consolidates him as an anti-coup and anti-establishment candidate. And, nightmare of nightmares, it restores the public image of the PT (Workers' Party).

(Incidentally, regarding the PT and Lula, it's worth remembering that famous saying: the announcement of our death was premature.)

On the other hand, depending on how the center-right tries to undermine Bolsonaro, there is a risk that the "anti-establishment" segment of his voters will migrate to Lula.

(Incidentally, the left cannot make the same egregious and classic mistake with Bolsonaro that Cristovam Buarque made against Roriz. We will not undermine his electorate by personally discrediting him, but by identifying him with Temer.)

Moral of the story: for people like Alckmin, the problem is threefold. They need to remove Lula, they need to remove Bolsonaro, and they need to grow their voter base. But as has already been said, their credentials as coup plotters and neoliberals drag them down; and their status as traditional politicians makes things even worse for them.

For the PT (Workers' Party), the problem is simple: it's about continuing to polarize. And polarizing even more.

Our program is relatively clear on this: repeal of the coup measures, an emergency program to generate jobs and ensure rights, and a Constituent Assembly.

But a program on paper isn't enough. It needs to be a program that the common people understand. People understand Lula.

Therefore, his physical absence needs to be compensated for by an extremely polarized Lula campaign: against the coup, against the neoliberal program of the coup, and against the decay of the "system." For the common people, this is a triplex that makes sense!