The rejection of Temer and the penny dropping.

         It doesn't take a crystal ball to conclude that the drop in approval of the Temer government to a mere 10,3%, according to the MDA-CNT survey, carries a trend of continuity that will intensify as the government advances with its agenda and Brazilians become more familiar with the president who governs them through a coup. In this 133rd CNT-MDA survey, 26,5% considered the government terrible and 17,6% merely bad, totaling 44,1% disapproval. Temer's own performance was disapproved of by 62,4%.  

         The disapproval of the president and his government is yet another indicator, though not the only one, that the coup project is visibly collapsing, and that the penny is dropping for those who were deluded by Dilma Rousseff's impeachment. The counterpoint is Lula's growth among the 2018 presidential candidates in the same poll. He gained six points after the penultimate round of the series in October, rising from 24,8% to 30,5% percentage points. Meanwhile, Aécio, Marina, Ciro Gomes, and Temer himself declined. Besides Lula, only Bolsonaro grew, capitalizing on the frustration of the far-right with the others who were willing to represent them. He rose from 6,5% to 11,3%.

         The more the government's agenda is known and implemented, the more damage it will bring to Temer and the parties and candidates who joined the coup coalition. Temer's best result in this series of polls was right after his inauguration as interim president, when he was still an enigma to most of the population. At that moment, replacing the ousted president, whom Congress and the opposition had prevented from governing in her second term in order to create the crisis and undermine her popularity, he was viewed with some hope by a segment of the population that was deluded by promises of moralization and restoration of economic conditions. In June, a month after his provisional inauguration, he reached 33,8% approval, a figure that fell to 31,7% in October, and now to 24,4%. His disapproval rating, which was 51,5% in October, has now risen to 62,4%. The same trend can be observed in the government's overall performance.

         Disappointment tends to persist for elementary reasons. No matter how much the media and sectors of the business and financial markets strive to see positive signs in the economy, for the people the situation has only worsened under Temer. By the end of the year, the country will have approximately 3,8 million new poor people, children of the recession. The poor no longer travel by plane and are even cutting off their cell phones, according to companies in the sector. Around 200,000 people left their health plans in January alone, says the ANS (National Agency for Supplementary Health). They either lost their corporate plan when they lost their job, or they could no longer afford their individual plan. The pressure on the public health system is increasing, as is the exodus from private schools, putting pressure on the public education system. Social programs have suffered cuts. In the states, there is financial calamity, a security crisis, and prison overcrowding. In this context, how can we see better days? How can we celebrate the decline in inflation, a consequence of the recession? Interest rates have fallen twice recently, but the real rate (Selic minus inflation) remains higher than in the last month of Dilma's government, and this negatively impacts credit. The government announces, as an achievement, that the FGTS (Brazilian employee severance fund) will finance properties up to R$ 1,5 million. What this means is the draining of resources from higher-income classes, to the detriment of those who need the lowest income bracket (Minha Casa, Minha Vida program). Temer is releasing residual funds from inactive FGTS accounts, which won't even make a dent in the recession, but people are now discovering that he has also stolen the PIS/Pasep bonus, which will not be paid this year.  

         Temer wasn't elected, so there's no way to talk about electoral fraud. But what the population is perceiving is the political fraud of the impeachment: there was no moralization, nor did the country get back on track as promised. On the contrary, Lava Jato is now running into corruption schemes by the PMDB and PSDB parties, and Temer makes no attempt to hide his efforts to protect his cronies. The country continues to derail, and life has gotten worse.

         The present is terrible, but the realization that the future will be tragic will come when the population begins to understand the full meaning of the pension and labor reforms that the government wants to approve at breakneck speed. The worst part of the pension reform isn't even raising the minimum retirement age to 65 for both men and women. The greatest evil lies in increasing the minimum contribution period from 15 to 25 years. In a country where millions only managed to get a formal job much later in life, even in middle age, and where the self-employed and informal workers only began to enter the system after Lula implemented the simplified regime with an 11% contribution, thousands of people will never retire if they have to prove at least 25 years of contributions to the INSS (National Institute of Social Security). As these and other evils become known, the perception of fraud will solidify, and the rejection of Temer and his associates will increase.

         Lula will be the natural beneficiary when the penny drops. Secondarily, Bolsonaro.