The question of Lula's vice-presidential candidate.

(first part)

Lula will be officially registered as a candidate for President of the Republic on August 15th. Who will be registered as his running mate for Vice-President?

Some would prefer it to be Ciro or Boulos. But both are presidential candidates and are not considering the vice-presidential candidacy.

Several names from the PT (Workers' Party) and Manuela, from the PCdoB (Communist Party of Brazil), are also being considered.

Some time ago, the PT leadership publicly offered the vice-presidential candidacy as part of negotiations with the PSB and PCdoB.

Let's first analyze the socialist alternative.

The PSB supported Aécio in the second round of 2014, was deeply involved in the 2016 coup, and in several Brazilian states participates in or supports right-wing governments and candidates (as is the case in São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul).

Moreover, considering this history, it is quite bold to offer the vice-presidential slot to the PSB. Especially since, if it becomes necessary to change the ticket, this will have to be done by the coalition, not just by the PT.

Regardless, despite the existence of a significant pro-Lula faction within the PSB, it is not believed that there will be a majority at the Socialist Convention to decide to support Lula and nominate his running mate.

And what could the PSB Convention decide?

As far as we know, they can either launch their own candidacy, support Ciro, or opt for "neutrality," meaning not supporting any presidential candidate. In this case, each sector of the PSB would do as it pleased.

Among these poor alternatives, the best option for Lula and the PT would clearly be "neutrality".

One problem is that, apparently, the majority group in the PSB leadership would only opt for "neutrality" if the PT withdrew Marilia Arraes' candidacy for governor of Pernambuco.

In other words, for this sector of the PSB, its national position (of "neutrality") would depend on a state-level agreement.

Within the PT (Workers' Party), this way of thinking causes obvious embarrassment, for various reasons.

Even so, some argue that the PSB's neutrality would be so important that it would justify withdrawing Marilia Arraes' candidacy for governor of Pernambuco, provided that the PSB also withdrew Marcio Lacerda's candidacy for governor of Minas Gerais.

Among other arguments, it is said that such a move would have the side effect of consolidating the alliance with the PCdoB.

We all know that Lacerda is one of the many PSDB members sheltered within the PSB. And there are differing opinions on what impact Lacerda's eventual departure would have on Pimentel's chances of reelection in Minas Gerais. But the biggest problem, at least from the perspective of a sector within the PT, lies in the "provided that".

Because, let's be clear, this type of approach greatly unbalances the relationship that should exist between national and state issues.

This same unbalanced logic is leading the PT (Workers' Party) to share majoritarian and proportional slates with coup-supporting parties in several states across the country. In some cases, regional agreements, negotiations regarding free airtime for political advertising, and other issues are presented and defended as if they were the embodiment of "national interests"—as if the last few years hadn't already demonstrated that agreements on these bases are not only fragile but also dangerous.

Those who defend this stance underestimate its detrimental effects, especially on the morale of the "PT nation" (referring to the Workers' Party).

Of course, if we manage to get Lula on the ballot, the direct electoral damage will be minimized. But those who defend that stance know very well that if Lula is officially a candidate, these agreements will also be less electorally relevant than they are portrayed.

What seems to be pushing some sectors to still consider making such agreements positive is the fear of what might happen if the right wing manages to prevent Lula's registration.

What those who defend that position fail to realize is that, in a scenario where Lula was prevented from officially running for office, therefore in a scenario where the election turned out to be fraudulent, whatever we do would have to be based more than ever on grand politics, on programmatic alliances, and on the passionate engagement of the grassroots.

An alliance with the PCdoB is very important. Just as it would be very important to achieve an effective national alliance with the PSB. But anyone who thinks this will be achieved by replacing Arraes with Lacerda is deluding themselves.