The Energy Policy of the Chihuahuas: Gas, Gas, Gas

Let's begin with a tale of the Empire boasting to the wind. 

Mr. Disco Inferno He orders OPEC and OPEC+ to lower oil prices because, in his mind, this could resolve the war in Ukraine – essentially forcing Moscow to sit at the table due to falling energy sector revenues. This, in itself, sums up the level of garbage that the cornucopia of acronyms passing for intelligence services has been feeding the President. 

Trump in Davos:I will ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices (...) If the price were to fall, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. At the moment, the price is high enough for the war to continue (...) With the fall in oil prices, I will demand that interest rates fall immediately. And similarly, they must fall throughout the world. Interest rates must follow our example.” 

As expected, OPEC+ – basically led by Saudi Arabia and Russia – said NyetBesides the fact that they don't care much about interest rates, on the energy front they will continue to do what they planned, including, soon, reducing production, but at acceptable levels. 

Standard Chartered, a leading player, noted that OPEC has limited power to end the war immediately by reducing oil prices, and that OPEC ministers view this attempted "strategy" as highly inefficient and costly.

Let's put aside imperial dictates.  

The strategic victory plan of the Chihuahuas - As highlighted earlier, The United States – using fracking – has enough gas for domestic consumption, but not enough to export.  in large scale for the European Union, due to liquefaction problems. This explains why, even buying more energy from the United States at exorbitant prices, the European Union in fact remains largely dependent on Russian LNG – and other non-US sources – since the Nord Streams sabotage, revealed in detail by Sy Hersh.

Even operating at maximum capacity, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot supply all the gas needed by the European Union. Add to that the fact that there has been virtually zero investment, both in the much-needed increase in exploration and in the essential infrastructure to meet the increased demand in the European Union.  

In the United States' domestic oil market, things become truly Kafkaesque. Trucking – a gigantic component of the service sector – relies on diesel imported from Russia, which has to be mixed with American-made oil to be usable in trucks.

The scene shifts to Davos, which came and went with little fanfare. The Toxic Medusa von der Leyen of the European Commission said in Davos that Europe had "substantially reduced" and in "record time" its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. 

Nonsense. The energy reality in Europe is bleak. Russian LNG from Novatek is currently sold at around $4,5–$4,7 per MMBtu. Which is more expensive than pipeline gas, but still... very (emphasis mine) cheaper than LNG in the United States. 

All industry professionals, from the Persian Gulf to Antwerp, know that Europe has been importing Russian LNG like never before. It's that – or a dry death. Meanwhile, Russia will triple its LNG supply capacity by 2035. The result: whatever those "energy commissioners" in Brussels come up with, Russia will remain fundamentally important for Europe's energy security. 

There are no limits – not even stratospheric ones – to the stupidity of Eurocracy, which corrodes the system like a plague. The Europeans not only managed to shut down their own gas pipelines, but are also “investigating” what was in fact a terrorist attack on Nordsream. 

Result: they are now importing closest (my italics) Russian gas, albeit through different means, from third-party suppliers, and paying a fortune. 

This could be described as the strategic victory plan of the Chihuahuas. 

The United States Treasury approves Mr. Disco Inferno - Russian LNG exports hit a record high last year, growing by 4% – producing 33,6 million tons. The monthly record was 3,25 million tons in December 2024, 13,7% higher than in November.

The largest Russian importer is Yamal LNG: 21,1 million tons, 6% more than in 2023.  

The scene shifts to proverbial American grumbling in the form of Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt ordering a "definitive end" to Russian gas exports to Europe.  

To hell with the opinions of countries like Hungary, and to hell with their needs. 

Pyatt told the Atlantic Council: “Today we are the largest exporter of LNG in the world, and by the end of the Trump administration, we will have doubled our current performance […] It has become clear that Brussels has decided to reach zero [gas imports from Russia] by 2027… and the United States strongly supports this goal.” 

My God. Do these people even read the most important headlines? As reported by PoliticoThe European Union is "devouring" Russian gas at unprecedented levels since the beginning of 2025, having imported 837.300 metric tons of LNG in just the first two weeks of the year.

The transit agreement through Ukraine has been definitively terminated – at least for now – starting January 1st. The action is now taking place on maritime routes. 

Enter the United States Treasury with a new package of sanctions against – what else? – the international trade in Russian oil, targeting up to 5,8 million barrels per day shipped by sea.  

Under current circumstances, the global oil market has a surplus of about 0,8 million barrels per day. Oil prices in 2025 are expected to remain around $71 per barrel of Brent crude (currently, the price is $76,2). Not exactly what Mr. Disco Inferno wants.

Let's suppose, then, that these 5,8 million barrels of Russian oil – under strict sanctions – were to disappear from the global market. In that case, we would have a dizzying increase in oil prices to an average of 150/160 dollars per barrel. Once again, far from what Mr. Disco Inferno desires: he vociferously promised – and continues to vociferously promise – a MAGA oil superpower and oil prices reduced to 50 dollars per barrel.  

According to the Russian budget for 2025, oil is priced at $65,9 per barrel. 

If the U.S. Treasury manages, through some kind of magic trick, to make those 5,8 million barrels "disappear," Russian revenues would increase to around $88,2 billion, even considering the drop in export volume. 

High oil prices are detrimental to the competitiveness of the United States. So, someone should tell Mr. Disco Inferno that this move by the Treasury will actually have more negative effects on Trump's dreams than on Russia.  

Across Eurasia, Russia is in a very advantageous position, especially compared to its BRICS partners. The Power of Siberia pipeline to China is fully operational, and Power of Siberia II is expected to begin operating in 2030. An increase in LNG exports to Iran is a done deal – especially after the signing of the strategic partnership earlier this month. 

This year, an agreement will also be signed in Russia regarding the transport of LNG to Afghanistan by tanker convoys. The next step will be Gasodustan: perhaps, finally, the necessary step to build a variant of TAPI (the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline), but with gas coming from Russia.

The biggest customer for Russian LNG, outside of China, is obviously BRICS partner India. A stabilized Pakistan is in the interest of Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, and India – not an Islamabad remotely controlled by Washington, as is the current situation – for the final opening of LNG routes to India. 

As for the European chihuahuas, have fun with your fantasies of "strategic defense." Keep barking – and buying Russian LNG. 

Translation by Patricia Zimbres