The narrative of the Dilma government

Last Thursday, while participating in the inauguration of new ships, manufactured by national shipyards, that will be used by Petrobras, the Dilma government demarcated an essential area – and one that will remain untouched – in her second term: the unwavering defense of the profit-sharing model in the pre-salt layer and the national content policy in the state-owned company's purchases. "Local content and profit-sharing policy, in my government, are maintained," she said, putting an end to a debate opened by important opposition senators, such as José Serra (PSDB-SP), Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) and Aloysio Nunes (PSDB-SP), but also fueled by the Minister of Mines and Energy himself, Eduardo Braga, who is from the allied PMDB party.

Those who advocate a return to the concession regime argue that, due to its debt, Petrobras should be released from the obligation to operate in all pre-salt fields with a minimum 30% participation. They argue that, if the production-sharing model is maintained, the pre-salt oil will remain in the depths of the sea. This argument has been refuted by the company's successive record-breaking performance. Last week, Petrobras announced a production mark of 800 barrels/day in the pre-salt layer. Furthermore, projections from the National Petroleum Agency indicate that Brazilian production will double by 2025.

This debate, however, goes beyond the purely economic question, about the pros and cons of one model or another. Between her first and second terms, Dilma practically made a U-turn in economic policy. Nothing could be further from the counter-cyclical stimulus of former minister Guido Mantega than the fiscal adjustment promoted by her successor Joaquim Levy. A stranglehold so harsh that it generated frustration among Dilma's electorate and accusations of electoral fraud from the opposition. And also extravagant situations, such as the overturning of the pension factor, implemented during the FHC government, with the vote of 45 PSDB deputies. In other words: Dilma is making an adjustment with "Tucano" DNA, opposed by PSDB parliamentarians.

That said, the fact is that the government can change almost everything, except what seems essential to it. Without the explicit defense of the production-sharing model and the national content policy, which keeps alive the hope of developing an important production chain in the naval and oil and gas sectors, Dilma would lose any possibility of building a positive narrative in her second term. What she can tell, after this extremely turbulent beginning, is a single narrative: that she resisted the harshest attack ever suffered by a government that had, as a hidden agenda, the handing over of national wealth, of the pre-salt reserves, to international groups. For this very reason, production-sharing and national content, as former minister Antônio Rogério Magri would say, are "untouchable".