Libya divided between Türkiye and Egypt: geopolitics in the Mediterranean

Libya is a region in North Africa, once divided into Tripolitania in the East, Cyrenaica in the West, and Fassa in the South, which since antiquity has been occupied by foreign powers, gaining independence from Italy after the Second World War. An authoritarian monarchical government was installed that allowed a strong presence of military forces in its territory, mainly British and French. 

Following the discovery of oil, the dissatisfaction of the impoverished population with inequality and the dictatorial attitudes of the royal government intensified, and in 1969, Libyan nationalist officials with pan-Arabist and socialist ideologies organized a revolt and seized power. This movement was led by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who declared himself leader of Libya, adopting a unique system of political organization based on the principles of Arab socialism, although in practice, control of the institutions remained in Gaddafi's hands. During his controversial rule, oil exploitation ensured relative social well-being for the population, which came to boast the highest Human Development Index (HDI) on the African continent. 

In 2011, protests shook the Islamic world, leading Libyan rebels with Western support to overthrow the Gaddafi government and plunging the country into civil war and conflicts between warlords, including a faction of the Islamic State group.

After years of back and forth, two groups have managed to establish themselves in the country. On one side, the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Haftar, controls eastern and southern Libya thanks to a wide range of alliances, including former Gaddafi officers and militias. On the other side, the Government of National Accord (GNA), a group supported and recognized by the UN as the national authority for the country, controls the capital Tripoli and the western coast of the African nation. These two groups recently clashed when General Haftar launched an offensive to take the capital and maintained a siege for months, until the arrival of support from Turkey forced the LNA to retreat. 

The Turkish intervention led the Egyptian parliament to authorize the deployment of troops to Libya in order to support Haftar's group, highlighting the geopolitical dispute in the region. Turkey intends to expand its local influence by supporting groups and governments of Islamic inspiration, such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNA, aiming to build an area of ​​influence similar to that of the Ottoman Empire, continuously extolled by President Erdogan. This movement faces resistance from secular groups with authoritarian tendencies, as in the case of President Al-Sisi of Egypt, who even came to power after a coup against the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and does not intend to see the region controlled by this group or similar ones.

Russia, for its part, tends to support Egypt and the LNA, but does so timidly, avoiding conflicts with Turkey, a very important ally for the Russians in the region, but intends to maintain other allies in the region such as General Haftar, to guarantee influence and bargaining power when necessary. 

Although the two groups controlling Libya maintained a relatively stable scenario, the advance of the LNA on Tripoli and the direct involvement of Turkey tend to generate an escalation of conflicts in the country, which, since the fall of Gaddafi, has lacked a central government and experiences frequent humanitarian crises. Given this scenario, it would not be surprising if, in the not-too-distant future, Libya were once again divided into two or more nations, as in ancient times.