The left is walking towards the precipice.

"When you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you." - Nietzsche

With just a few months to go before the municipal elections, the outlook is bleak for the progressive camp. 

It is perfectly realistic to consider the possibility that PT, PDT, PSB, PCdoB, and PSOL will not elect any mayors in the state capitals. Victories in only two or three are possible. That would be cause for great celebration.

In the Southeast, the left may not even make it to the second round. In the South, the only chance is in Porto Alegre. In the Midwest, only an upset. In the North, it seems only Belém is still "breathing." In the Northeast, center-right or Bolsonaro-supporting figures are leading the polls in most of the capital cities.

Lost, divided, and embroiled in a bloody war for hegemony in the field, the left seems not to have understood – or refuses to accept – the message from the ballot box in 2018. 

The axis of national politics has shifted to the far right, altering the positioning of all the pieces on the board. Since then, the scenario has changed little.

Bolsonaro lost part of the middle class with his stance on the pandemic, but everything indicates that he has shifted his base through the emergency aid program. Whether this will last or not is still an unknown.

We've already passed 70 deaths, will anyone else abandon ship because of the deaths? Where will the middle class that abandoned ship go? Will they march with Moro or return to the "reds"?

Of course, the state of the economy can always destabilize the government. In this sector, will the results for 2021 and 2022 be better or worse than the disaster of 2020?

The captain is reorganizing his government. He changed his leaders in the Chamber of Deputies. He made progress in the agreement with the Centrão (center-right bloc). He is trying to stabilize his relationship with the Supreme Court. He managed to silence his main opponent for 20 days: himself. He toned down the ideological agenda and gave centrality back to the economic agenda. 

There is no opposition with a defined strategy. We are still in the phase of making piecemeal agreements around specific, important, but insufficient issues.

With the risk of impeachment fading, who will be the captain's main opponent in 2022? Will the liberal opposition remain divided between Moro, Doria, Huck, Mandetta, and others? Could the convergence of these figures put them in the second round against the president? 

The hangover from the municipal elections will be harsh and educational. Only an unlikely turnaround, with the unification of progressive candidates, could change this situation. 

Tragedies have the power to provoke profound reflection. They often bring about drastic changes in the ways we see and understand the world. 

Whether through love or pain, reality, in its excellence, always prevails. In these moments, nothing speaks louder than the instinct for survival. It will scream in 2021.