The Balinese dance at the G20 and Biden's reassuring words.

Balinese culture, a perpetual exercise in sophisticated subtlety, does not distinguish between the secular and the supernatural. sekala e niskalaSekala is what our senses are able to discern. Such as, for example, the ritualized gestures of world leaders – both real and second-hand – at a highly polarized G20.

Niskala refers to what cannot be directly perceived, but only "suggested." This also applies to geopolitics. 

In Bali, the highlight may have been the intersection between sekala and niskala: the highly publicized face-to-face meeting between Xi and Biden (or rather, the face-to-face meeting with headphones).

The Chinese Ministry of Public Affairs preferred to go straight to the heart of the matter and select the Two High Points.

1. Xi told Biden – or rather, his earpiece – that Taiwan's independence is simply off the table.  

2. Xi also hopes that NATO, the European Union, and the United States will engage in a "broad dialogue" with Moscow.

Asian cultures, whether Balinese or Confucian, are averse to confrontation. Xi outlined three layers of common interests:

• to avoid conflict and confrontation, and to lead to peaceful coexistence,  
• development in which countries benefit from each other 
• To promote post-COVID recovery globally, address climate change, and tackle regional problems in a coordinated manner.

It is significant that the three-and-a-half-hour meeting took place at the Chinese delegation's residence in Bali, and not at the G20 facilities. And that it was requested by the White House. 

According to the Chinese, Biden stated that the United States does not want a new Cold War, does not support Taiwan's independence, does not support the "Two Chinas" or "One China, One Taiwan" narrative, does not seek to "decouple" from China, and does not wish to contain China.  

But tell that to the Straussians/neocons/neoliberals who lean towards containing China. Reality shows that Xi has little reason to trust Biden – or rather, the group that, behind the scenes, orchestrates the whole plot. So, as things stand, we remain in niskala.

The game is zero-sum.

Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo was left with a difficult task: how to hold a G20 summit to discuss food and energy security, sustainable development, and climate issues when everything under the sun is polarized by the war in Ukraine. 

Widodo did his best, urging the entire G20 to "end the war," with the subtle implication that "being responsible means creating situations that are not zero-sum games." 

The problem is that much of the G20 arrived in Bali wanting a zero-sum game – seeking confrontation (with Russia), and almost no diplomatic talks.  

The delegations from the United States and the European Union intended to openly snub Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at every turn. With France and Germany it was different: Lavrov had brief conversations with both Macron and Scholz. And he told them that Kiev doesn't want to negotiate. 

Lavrov also revealed something of great importance for the Global South: 

"The United States and the European Union have given the UN Secretary-General written promises that restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports will be lifted – we'll see how this is implemented."

The traditional group photo before the start of the G20 summit – a ritual that marks all summits held in Asia – had to be postponed. Because – who else would it be? – Biden and Sunak refused to be in the same photo as Lavrov.

This kind of childish and undiplomatic hysteria only serves to deeply offend the grace, gentleness, and non-confrontational ethos of Bali. 

The Western version is that "most G20 countries" wanted to condemn Russia regarding Ukraine. Nonsense. Diplomatic sources hinted that the true score was 50/50. Condemnation comes from the bloc of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Non-condemnation comes from the group of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, and, of course, Russia. 

In graphical terms, the Global South versus the Global North. 

The joint statement will therefore refer to the impacts of the "war in Ukraine" on the global economy, and not to Russia's war in Ukraine. 

The collapse of the European Union economy

What hadn't been happening in Bali enveloped the island in an additional layer of niskala. Which brings us to Ankara.

The fog thickened because, in the background of the G20, the United States and Russia were in talks in Ankara, represented by CIA director William Burns and SVR (foreign intelligence service) director Sergei Naryshkin.

No one knows for sure what is being negotiated. A ceasefire is just one of the possible scenarios. But the heated rhetoric coming from NATO in Brussels and directed at Kiev suggests that escalation will prevail over any kind of reconciliation. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was adamant, e de jureUkraine cannot and will not negotiate. The special military operation will therefore continue.  

NATO has been training new units. The next possible targets will be the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and the left bank of the Dnieper River – or even increased pressure north of Lugansk. For their part, Russian military channels raise the possibility of a winter offensive on Nikolaiev: just 30 kilometers from Russian positions.

Serious Russian military analysts know what serious Pentagon analysts also need to know: Russia deployed only a fraction of its military potential to the Ukrainian battlefield. Only a few Russian soldiers were called up, most of them being... spetsnaz – special forces. Those who actually fight are the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, the Wagner commandos, Kadyrov's Chechens, and volunteers. 

The Americans' sudden interest in talks, and Macron and Scholz's rapprochement with Lavrov, point to the heart of the matter: the European Union and the United Kingdom may not be able to survive the next winter, that of 2023-2024, without Gazprom.

The International Energy Agency calculated  that the total deficit, at that time, will approach 30 billion cubic meters. And all this presupposes "ideal" circumstances for this coming winter: generally warm, China still under lockdowns, much lower gas consumption in Europe and even an increase in production (in Norway?). 

The International Energy Agency's models are projecting two or three waves of price increases over the next twelve months. European Union budgets are already on red alert – compensating for the losses caused by the current energy suicide. 

Any unforeseen additional costs throughout 2023 will mean that the European Union economy will collapse completely: factory closures across the spectrum, the euro in freefall, soaring inflation, debt eroding across the board, from Club Med countries to France and Germany.

It is clear that the dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen, leader of the European Commission, should be discussing all these topics – defending the interests of the European Union countries – with global actors in Bali. But, quite the contrary, once again her only agenda was the demonization of Russia. Without any subtlety, only with the crudest cognitive dissonance. 

Translation by Patricia Zimbres