It's not the rain's fault.

Given the catastrophe that struck the coast of São Paulo during Carnival, hitting its northern portion particularly hard, especially the municipality of São Sebastião, it is natural that we seek explanations. The rainfall volumes were indeed brutal and, in some cases, unprecedented: in Bertioga and São Sebastião, for example, rainfall exceeded 600 mm in just 7 hours, the highest volume ever recorded.  

Just like the events we saw at the beginning of last year in Bahia and Minas Gerais, as also happened previously in Rio de Janeiro and other states, these phenomena are directly linked to climate change. These are alterations that manifest themselves in so-called "climate extremes," large-scale meteorological events characterized by very high or very low temperatures; acute and prolonged droughts and intense rainfall, among other factors.  

Although scientists and environmentalists have been warning about the increasing frequency and intensity of these phenomena for at least three decades, the world has made very little progress in addressing climate emergencies. In short: humanity has not adequately prepared for a serious problem that was already predicted and is already happening. Worse, we continue to use the old "development" model, based on fossil fuels, making the same mistakes as always.

Our cities continue to channel or straighten their rivers and streams, filling valley bottoms with avenues and buildings of all kinds. Furthermore, hillsides and water source areas are frequently occupied by the poorest segment of the population, usually displaced from central areas by real estate speculation. In this scenario, when heavy rains occur, flooding and landslides are the inevitable natural consequences.

Given the significant increase in "natural disasters" (a term I consider inappropriate) and the extremely high costs of repairing the damage they cause, during President Dilma Rousseff's administration, the Federal Government created the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) in 2011. The Center was launched that year after the catastrophe that led to 947 deaths and 300 missing persons in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro.  

On the morning of Thursday, February 16th of this year, Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters) had alerted the Civil Defense of São Paulo and the municipalities involved about the risks of heavy rainfall with the potential to cause significant damage. The alert even cited Vila Sahy, located in the interior of Barra do Sahy, in São Sebastião, as a high-risk region. Unfortunately, about 72 hours after the alerts, the population was already beginning to count the victims, among them dozens of dead.

Among so many other shortcomings, unfortunately in Brazil we lack a culture of prevention, neither for natural disasters nor other occurrences. I recall, for example, the fire at the Kiss nightclub, which claimed the lives of 242 young people in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, exactly 10 years ago. How many establishments, even in worse conditions than that nightclub, continued to operate "normally" throughout Brazil, even after the tragedy? And the boats that continue to navigate the waters with excess passengers, without safety equipment, even after numerous fatal accidents? And the vehicles that continue to circulate when they should have been taken out of service long ago due to lack of roadworthiness?

Let's return to the North Coast of São Paulo.  

President Lula visited São Sebastião on Monday, a day after the tragedy. He met with Mayor Felipe Augusto and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who went to the city on Sunday morning and remained there, helping the head of the municipal executive to take the necessary measures to help the victims. On that occasion, the President of the Republic expressed his solidarity with those affected and announced that the Federal government, in addition to immediate support in financial, material and personnel resources, wished to contribute with lasting solutions.  

Among the proposals presented, the president suggested building houses through the "Minha Casa Minha Vida" (My House, My Life) program, with the goal of serving the population living in at-risk areas. Lula reminded everyone that these areas should not be occupied, and argued that the poor population does so not by choice, but due to a lack of other options. Once again, on social media, here and there, some criticized Lula, accusing him of "playing politics." It's important to remember that the solution to most of our problems depends on political decisions, without which only barbarism would remain.  

Still in São Sebastião, the president emphasized that Brazil is unaccustomed to seeing leaders with different political positions unite for a common cause – in this case, supporting and assisting the victims. Even though the combined efforts of the three levels of government are fundamental, we are aware of the challenges involved, especially regarding the resistance from sectors of society whose interests will certainly be thwarted.  

In light of the recent tragedy in the coastal region, some information is important for reflection. The municipalities of the northern coast of São Paulo are not poor, since, in addition to their ordinary revenue, they receive oil royalties. According to information from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), in 2021 alone, R$ 548,9 million was paid out, distributed to Ilhabela (R$ 296,5 million), São Sebastião (R$ 134,8 million), Caraguatatuba (R$ 105,2 million) and Ubatuba (R$ 12,3 million).

São Sebastião has an estimated permanent population of 90 inhabitants, a large part of whom reside in at-risk areas, such as those that collapsed or were affected by floods during that tragic Carnival weekend. In addition, there is a floating population of people residing in other cities in the state who visit the beaches sporadically. These people contribute to the local economy but rarely use municipal services such as health and education. Another important fact is that the property tax (IPTU) is, on average, significantly higher than in São Paulo, meaning the municipality has resources.  

It's important to remember that recently, a complex of hundreds of low-income houses from the "Minha Casa Minha Vida" (My House, My Life) program was prevented from being built by property owners in Maresias, an upscale neighborhood in São Sebastião. These owners argued that environmental preservation and the lack of basic sanitation in the region were the reasons for stopping the construction. It's curious to note that to erect these tasteless mansions and condominiums, they destroyed the Restinga vegetation (the vegetation that lies just beyond the floodplain of the beaches); they filled in waterways, springs, and floodplains—in other words, they deforested at will.  

It was only after all this damage was done that concern arose regarding sanitation and vegetation cover. In other words, when it's to serve the interests of real estate speculation and the whims of the wealthy, anything goes, but when it's to uphold a basic right of cleaning ladies, cooks, gardeners, fishermen, ice cream vendors, workers who sell coconuts, beer, and caipirinhas on the beach, or the traditional coastal communities who still resist, and so many others, then all sorts of opposing arguments appear. It's evident that green areas must be preserved, and it's obvious that we all want sanitation, just as it's obvious that there is an absolutely unequal dispute. Yet another one!

The rule on the coast, as in most Brazilian cities, is never to infringe on the whims of the economic elite. For these people, allowing the "devaluation" of a mansion by building poor people's houses nearby, or within sight of the wealthy and the doctor, is a heinous crime. It is worth noting that the construction of buildings is prohibited in all neighborhoods of São Sebastião, not due to a lack of pressure from real estate speculation, but thanks to the resistance of the local population. Were it not for this resistance, the region's landscape would certainly already be full of buildings, densifying the municipality and shading the beaches, as is the case in Balneário Camboriú (SC), for example, which, to remedy the situation, had to triple the width of its narrow strip of sand.

This is not about pointing fingers, which should be done through investigations opened by the Public Prosecutor's Office or the Civil Police. The moment demands the search for alternatives and solutions. However, it is impossible to ignore the profound contradictions of this entire process, the overcoming of which is essential if there is a true desire to change the terrible situation we find ourselves in. At this moment, it is everyone's duty to join efforts to help the families who have lost everything, including relatives, friends, and neighbors who have passed away. Following this, it is imperative to develop and implement projects aimed at lasting solutions.

Some long-standing proposals, such as prioritizing housing programs for families in at-risk areas in the public budget, need to be implemented. Simultaneously, areas prone to landslides, flooding, and other incidents should be frozen for occupation and designated for the restoration of their original vegetation. Full sanitation, with the implementation of water supply networks, sewage collection and treatment, as well as stormwater drainage systems and efficient selective solid waste collection, is also indispensable.  

Implementing programs to promote tourism, local cuisine, and encourage local entrepreneurship is also fundamental for generating jobs and income for the local population. What we cannot do is treat all of this simply as "things of nature" and forget about this catastrophe, only to worry again when we are mourning the victims of the next one.