September 7: sovereignty, amnesty and ongoing coup

Amnesty for the participants and organizers of the coup attempts represents the continuation of the coup. Amnesty means pardoning criminals and giving them safe passage to continue conspiring against democracy and the rule of law. Amnesty for the coup plotters, commuting sentences for past, present, and future acts, as desired by Bolsonaro supporters and the right wing in general, means opening the doors of politics even further to criminal organizations like the PCC and Comando Vermelho.

Despite all this, and more than that, the week that began the trial of the main group that organized the coup attempt – including Bolsonaro and some generals – was marked by the Bolsonaro political offensive, pushing the government and left-wing parties onto the defensive. There was a strong attack on the Supreme Federal Court (STF), a kind of uprising for amnesty in Congress, with Tarcísio at the forefront, and a greater presence of the right wing on social media defending its causes. The defensiveness of the government and the left came through statements by Lula: he acknowledged that the amnesty could pass in Congress.

The week ended on September 7th, revealing the fragility of the left-wing parties and social movements, which staged weak mobilizations against amnesty and in defense of democracy. In São Paulo, according to the USP Monitor, which measures the presence of people at demonstrations, the left mobilized approximately 9 people in Praça da República, while Bolsonaro supporters mobilized more than 42 people on Avenida Paulista. The left lost both online and in the streets.

Symbolically, the striped flag of American imperial interventionism on Paulista Avenue was superimposed on the pale green and yellow flags of sovereignty in Praça da República and Esplanada dos Ministérios. The coup-driven amnesty defeated sovereignty in the streets and in the spaces of public debate. The audacity of the Bolsonaro-supporting scoundrels prevailed over a misguided left that, even with all the elements to impose a historic defeat on the right, doesn't know what to do.

Let me repeat: there is no political leadership. Two weeks ago, the government's sleepy political maneuvering suffered a major setback, allowing the right wing to take the presidency and the rapporteurship of the INSS fraud investigation committee. This is unacceptable and unforgivable.

More than that: what is happening in the country is astonishing. Bolsonarism is leaving the defendant's bench to become the judge and put the Supreme Court in its place. The Supreme Court, which judges in the name of defending democracy and the rule of law, is being transformed into a tyrant, and Bolsonarism into the "voice of freedom." None other than Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of the country's main state, proclaimed that Alexandre de Moraes (and, consequently, the Supreme Court) is a tyrant.

Governor Tarcísio dropped the pretense. He revealed what was already known: he is a radical Bolsonaro supporter, he attacks democracy and is in the service of coup plotters. Not accepting the judgments and decisions of the courts in a democracy is a coup. In democracies, court decisions must be respected. Disrespect means resorting to violence, to the law of the strongest.

The amnesty campaign, the mutiny of extremist deputies who seized control of the Chamber of Deputies, and the non-acceptance of the Supreme Court's judgment and future sentences represent a coup in progress. Right-wing deputies, Bolsonaro supporters, and Governor Tarcísio are leading this coup. They are spreading the idea that, in the event of a conviction, there will be some kind of intervention from the Trump administration. The prohibition of any negotiation regarding the tariff increase indicates that this possibility should not be underestimated.

The passivity and incompetence of the left are leading President Lula and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to serious political wear and tear. If the amnesty bill is approved, Lula will have to veto it, and the veto could be overturned. The impasse will reach the STF, and the Court, once again, will have to enter the political dispute by declaring the bill unconstitutional. In other words, the left is proving incapable of playing the political game in the arenas of political battles and is outsourcing the dispute to the STF.

If the amnesty bill is approved, if it is vetoed by Lula, or if it is declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, Brazil will enter a high-risk situation. Bolsonaro supporters will accept neither the veto nor the unconstitutionality. They will resort to an all-or-nothing approach, to confrontation, to a political stalemate with the help of the Trump administration.

Unlike Lula, who understood the gravity of the political moment by pointing to the need for popular mobilization to block the amnesty, the lethargic left remains gripped by political torpor. The political gains that Lula and the government have obtained so far from the impact of the tariff hikes and the trial of the coup leaders have been relatively small. The current risks demand that these gains be consolidated and expanded.

But to achieve this, it is necessary to intensify the political struggle in Congress, on social media, and in the streets. The far-right has shown itself capable of polarizing and attracting the center-right, creating increasing difficulties for the government in Congress. The center-right confirms two things: 1) it is incapable of developing a democratic power project; 2) it is an auxiliary line of the far-right and of coup plotters.

Ensuring that the Supreme Federal Court concludes the trial by issuing sentences and blocking the amnesty bill is the only way to put an end to the coup attempt. Other countries in South America have successfully followed this path, without amnesty and with severe punishments for the criminals of the dictatorships.

Argentina, which suffered over 30 deaths and disappearances, has already punished more than 1.200 military and civilians who committed crimes during the dictatorship. More than 200 criminals, including generals and other high-ranking officials who led the governments, received life sentences. In Brazil, with the amnesty, strictly speaking, no one was punished. This allowed Bolsonaro to express his admiration for South American dictators, praise the torturer Brilhante Ustra, and proclaim the need to close Congress and execute 30 people, starting with then-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. It is no coincidence that, at the end of his presidential term, the "green and yellow dagger" plan emerged, which aimed to assassinate Lula, Alckmin, and Alexandre de Moraes.

Amnesty is an incentive for coups. This incentive will only be broken by punishing the coup plotters. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) needs to be balanced and sensible to produce a just result. If the coup plotters are convicted, as is expected, the sentences cannot be too lenient as to suggest impunity, nor excessive so as not to appear vengeful. The political and democratic normality of the country will not come with amnesty, but with just sentences from the STF. The judicial and coercive instruments of the Brazilian State, with popular support, need to guarantee that the courts' decisions are enforced.