17 projections for 2017

1 - The beginning of a prolonged conflict involving the US and the European Union versus China over trade disputes that have put pressure on jobs and the trade balances of the former. The central issue will be whether or not China's recognition as a market economy is updated at the WTO.

2- Pacification of the region involving Syria, Iran, and Türkiye, based on an understanding between Trump and Putin regarding the fight against the Islamic State.

3 - The US will drag the EU into a pact with Russia in order to focus on the priority of reducing China's power and its economic impact on the domestic markets of the US and the EU.

4 - Risk of a far-right victory in France, fueled by the Trump effect, projecting an even more serious risk of this effect spreading throughout the world, especially if the new American president manages to produce positive results on living conditions in his country.

5 - Obama and Sanders will lead the domestic opposition to Trump, particularly on issues related to racism, immigration policy, and xenophobia.

6 - Trump must moderate some of his domestic impulses in order to fulfill his main campaign promise, which is to create jobs. This could be achieved through opposition, traditional bipartisan parliamentary agreements with the establishment, or dialogue with Obama.

7 - Beginning of a widespread political crisis (which could escalate to an institutional one) in Latin America following revelations by the US Department of Justice about the activities of the Odebrecht construction company in 12 countries (and two more in Africa).

8 - This process should gradually surpass in importance the debate over maintaining or reversing the social advances of the last decade on the continent.

9 - In Brazil, Temer has a remote chance of falling (see analysis).

10 - With the recession in a more severe state, the government's package of economic measures and anti-unemployment measures should be effective, as there is enormous idle capacity and, on the other hand, the package was based on historical proposals from the business sector and, therefore, this time, they will have to prove their effectiveness. This could reduce the growth of pessimism, helping the government to gain popularity.

11 - Class C, pulling along D and E, should start settling in.

12 - Massive opening of criminal proceedings in the Supreme Court against politicians holding office and government positions, and another chapter in the institutional crisis, with Lava Jato now pointing towards the financial system.

13 - With or without the opposition, there should be more cohesion between the majority in the National Congress, the government, and a powerful economic actor.

14 - Strong chance of conviction and/or imprisonment of former president Lula. It will not be possible to leave the test of the eventual popular reaction to one of these hypotheses until the presidential election year. And it may be in the task force's interest to give this demonstration of strength to the political system.

15 - Mayors and governors bogged down in reduced fiscal leeway, unable to find solutions other than further austerity measures that provoke conflicts with public employees and a loss of popularity among the poorest sectors of society, not to mention new cycles of scandals related to corruption allegations as side effects of Lava Jato.

16 - Waves of social movements calling for direct elections, but with low impact: the 2017 budget does not include a reduction in social investments, the pension reform will be debated in Congress with back-and-forth discussions without much opportunity for mass opposition, the economy should begin to respond less negatively in relation to unemployment, the right-wing streets will be more focused on supporting Lava Jato and more assertive actions against Lula than joining with the left-wing streets around the "Out with Temer" movement.

17 - A resurgence of hate crimes – particularly homophobic and femicide crimes – such as the one perpetrated in Campinas-SP at the turn of the year, which may push Congress, the government, and local authorities – not to mention judicial activism – to take urgent measures in response. This is the type of social struggle that is likely to grow in the country, dramatizing the polarization between progressive and conservative solutions in the face of such events.