Safras reduces its forecast for Brazil's 23/24 soybean harvest by 4,3% to 151,36 million tons.
The drop in production occurs even with a 1,5% increase in planted area compared to the previous year.
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean production for 2023/24 is expected to total 151,36 million tons, the consultancy Safras & Mercado estimated this Friday (5), reducing its projection by 4,3% compared to the number released on December 8, considering further losses due to dry weather.
If the current volume is confirmed, Safras indicates a 4,1% decrease compared to the previous season's harvest, which reached a record 157,83 million tons.
The drop in production occurs even with a 1,5% increase in planted area compared to the previous year, estimated at a record 45,36 million hectares.
The survey indicates that average productivity should increase from 3.550 kilograms per hectare to 3.354 kilograms.
"The erratic weather has necessitated further reductions in the productivity potential of important producing states, particularly Mato Grosso. Negative adjustments have been made to the area and average expected productivity of crops in the country's largest producing state," Safras said in a statement.
In addition to Mato Grosso, there was a reduction in expected average productivity in states such as Goiás, Tocantins, and Bahia.
"The dry climate, with irregular rainfall and high temperatures, has brought and continues to bring significant problems to crops in the central-northern region of Brazil. Areas have been abandoned and replanting has been necessary, with changes to planting schedules in several states," said analyst Luiz Fernando Gutierrez Roque.
He considered that if the months of January, February, and March have more regular weather, it will still be possible to see a recovery in a good portion of the crops, which could guarantee still satisfactory yields, although lower than those of the last harvest.
In other states, crop development is favorable, said Safras, emphasizing that "favorable weather in the coming weeks/months is still important to somewhat compensate for the losses in the Central-North states at the national level."
However, the consultancy highlighted that there is no more room for another record harvest this season.
(By Roberto Samora)