Brazil's coffee harvest is expected to grow 4,6% in 24/25, says Itaú BBA.
The investment bank also noted that, despite the recovery in the harvest compared to recent years, the total will still fall slightly short of the record registered in 2020/21.
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's coffee crop for the 2024/25 season, which begins harvesting in the coming months, was estimated on Friday at 69,4 million 60-kg bags, a 4,6% increase compared to the previous season, following improved weather in the Arabica bean-producing region, according to a report by Itaú BBA.
The investment bank also noted that, despite the recovery in the harvest compared to recent years, the total will still fall slightly short of the record registered in 2020/21, when it totaled 69,9 million bags.
"After a complicated post-flowering period in Brazil's coffee belts, with little rain and high temperatures, especially in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, the condition of the crops has improved reasonably, with the return of rains from the second half of December and good volumes in January," said Itaú BBA.
According to the report from the bank's Agro Consulting firm, Southern Minas Gerais, the main producing region, "where the rains arrived a little earlier than in the Cerrado, has shown satisfactory development and there are indications that the Arabica harvest in the region may be slightly larger than that harvested last year."
The Cerrado region, the institution added, will possibly be the only major Arabica-producing region to experience a contraction compared to last year. "With this, we believe the total Arabica harvest will be slightly higher than last year's, although below the record of 2020," it stated.
Itaú BBA estimates the Arabica crop at 46,2 million bags (+3%) and the Canephora (Robusta/Conilon) crop at more than 23 million bags (+8%).
With boosted production from Brazil and Indonesia, as well as stable harvests in other important producing countries, Itaú BBA projects that the global balance will tend to be somewhat "more comfortable".
The surplus between production and consumption is expected to increase from 1,9 million bags in 2023/24 to 4,6 million bags in 2024/25. "For overall consumption, we are considering a 1% increase, which is higher than that observed in the last two years."