Conab estimates a drop in coffee production of 51,8 million bags
The result represents a 4,4% drop compared to 2024.
Pedro Peduzzi - Reporter for Agência Brasil
The total estimated production for the Brazilian processed coffee crop this year is 51,8 million bags, which, if confirmed, will represent a 4,4% drop compared to the previous crop. The 1st Coffee Survey - 2025 Crop was released this Tuesday (28) by the National Supply Company (Conab).
Conab's Crop Monitoring Manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos, explains that this drop is a reflection of the entire climate situation observed since 2021 in the country.
“This is the first result of the forecast for the 2025 coffee harvest. Conab monitors the coffee harvest and releases four estimates per year. This result also reflects the impact of the climate in 2021, 2023, and part of 2024. It still looks like a challenging harvest,” said Vasconcellos.
According to Conab, productivity was affected by factors such as high temperatures and water restrictions during the flowering phases, which should result in an average harvest of 28 bags per hectare, which corresponds to a reduction of 3% compared to 2024.
The result should be negative even with a 0,5% growth in the total area allocated to coffee cultivation in Brazil, which stood at 2,25 million hectares, of which 1,85 million are for production and 46 thousand hectares are for formation.
“For Arabica coffee, the estimate points to a production of 34,7 million bags, a drop of 12,4% compared to the previous year. This performance reflects the low biennial cycle and adverse weather conditions, especially in Minas Gerais, the country's largest producer, where the reduction was 12,1%,” reported Conab.
In the case of conilon coffee, Conab estimates a total production of 17,1 million bags. If confirmed, the result will represent, according to Conab, a “significant growth” of 17,2%.
